- U.S. scientists say the Ebola crisis is worsening
- They predict the virus will rage for another 12 to 18 months
- As of September 7, there had been 4,366 Ebola cases including 2,218 deaths, more than half of them in Liberia
- The most recent figures from Liberia reported 400 new cases as of September 7 - almost double the number reported the previous week
The Ebola epidemic affecting West Africa is predicted to last a further 12 to 18 months, according to U.S. scientists.
Epidemiologists
have been creating computer models of the Ebola epidemic for the
National Institutes of Health and the Defense Department.
The
model they have created is a far less optimistic estimate than that of
the World Health Organization (WHO), which last month said it hoped to
contain the outbreak within nine months and 20,000 total cases.
Spreading: A child looks at a man
suspected of suffering from the Ebola virus, while holding his hand over
his nose, in a main street and busy part in Monrovia, Liberia, Friday,
September 12
Epidemic: The virus is rapidly spreading through impoverished and densely populated cities in West Africa
The New York Times reports that various researchers have said the virus could grow at a rate that could be closer to 20,000 per month.
The WHO is sticking to its estimates, a spokesman said Friday.
The
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is doing its own
projections which it plans to make public as soon as possible.
The
director of the CDC, Dr Thomas R Frieden, has said that the situation
is worsening and earlier this month said it's 'spiraling out of
control.'
Unlike
previous outbreaks which have been kept at bay due to their confinement
to rural areas, the current Ebola crisis is spreading rapidly in
densely populated cities such as Monrovia, Liberia's impoverished
capital.
The
spread is rapidly gaining traction, with the most recent report from
Liberia of 400 cases, double the number from the week before, reports
The New York Times.
As
of September 7, there had been 4,366 Ebola cases in Libera, Sierra
Leone and Guinea, including 2,218 deaths, more than half of them in
Liberia.
Fatalities: The dead body of a man who
died early Saturday morning in the poor neighborhood of Monrovia that
locals call New Kru Town is taken away on Saturday September 13, 2014 in
Monrovia, Liberia
International plea: The WHO said on Friday at least 500 foreign experts are needed to help deal with Ebola in West Africa
The WHO has also admitted that there is likely to be 'substantial underreporting of cases and deaths.'
The WHO has also admitted that there is likely to be 'substantial underreporting of cases and deaths.'
With
the death toll from Ebola in West Africa rising sharply in the last
week, the WHO said on Friday at least 500 foreign experts were needed.
Medical
charity Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) has also called on wealthy
nations to send military medical teams to West Africa to boost
healthcare systems that have been completely swamped by the disease.
Cuba
on Friday announced that it would deploy 165 medical personnel to
Sierra Leone next month, the largest contingent of foreign doctors and
nurses committed so far.
The
U.S. military said this week it will build a 25-bed, $22 million field
hospital in Liberia to care for health workers infected with the virus. A
Pentagon spokesman said it would be built by the U.S. military and
handed over to Liberians to run.
France
has also said it would deploy 20 specialists in biological disasters to
its former colony Guinea. Britain will also build and operate a 62-bed
hospital in Sierra Leone.
MSF
has said, however, the pledges by Western government represent just a
fraction of the beds required to cope with the disease. It estimates
that hundreds of additional beds are needed in Monrovia alone, where
Ebola patients have been turned away from overflowing clinics.
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