Why did 28,000 rivers in China suddenly disappear?
Startling government survey sheds new light on Chinese water crisis
By Amar Toor
on
For years, China claimed to
hold an estimated 50,000 rivers within its borders. Now, more than half
of them have abruptly vanished.
Last week, China's Ministry of Water Resources announced
the results of a three-year survey of the country’s waterways,
revealing startling declines in water supply. According to the census,
there were 22,909 rivers in China as of 2011, each covering an area of
at least 100 square kilometers. That marks a decrease of about 28,000
from the government's previous estimates, raising fears among environmentalists and putting Beijing on the defensive.
China's longest rivers, the Yangtze and the Yellow, have each seen declining water levels
in recent years, but the government's survey — its most comprehensive
to date — may shed new light on the breadth and gravity of the country's
crisis.
According to the South China Morning Post,
officials attributed the decline to global warming and outdated mapping
techniques, saying previous estimates were based on incomplete
topographical maps from the 1950s. Experts, meanwhile, say there are
more direct factors at play — namely, explosive economic development and
poor environmental stewardship.
Ma Jun, director of the
Beijing-based Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs,
acknowledges that updated mapping techniques could explain some
discrepancies in river estimates, though he notes that the government's
findings corroborate those from independent studies.
"pollution is destroying the limited resources we have"
"Our research has shown that in
some areas, especially in north China, rivers are drying up or turning
into seasonal rivers," Ma said in a phone interview with The Verge.
There are several explanations for this phenomenon, including
deforestation and, to a less certain extent, climate change, though Ma
says the two primary catalysts are pollution and overpopulation.
Together, they form a
potentially disastrous combination. China's mushrooming population has
added extra strain to its limited water supply, while the country's
rampant industrialization has left many rivers contaminated.
"At the moment, pollution discharge is destroying the limited clean resources we have," Ma said.
The extent of China's pollution problem was laid bare in grisly fashion last month, when more than 12,000 dumped pig carcasses
washed ashore in Shanghai and Jiaxing. Agricultural and industrial
waste has had a pronounced human impact, as well, contaminating water
supplies in so-called "cancer villages" — a moniker for areas with particularly high cancer rates.
Dead pigs and cancer villages
These incidents have drawn
greater attention to China's water crisis, while reviving concerns over
the environmental costs of unfettered economic development. Chinese
lawmakers, however, have been grappling with these issues for decades.
China's modern water
management system dates back to the 1960s, when a series of devastating
floods forced Mao Zedong to commission an array of dams, reservoirs, and
spillways. Mao's infrastructure helped prevent floods, but it also
created ecological imbalances by blocking rivers that once flowed into
the North China Plain. As a result, lakes and rivers in the region began
drying up, and farmers began depleting well supplies.
Population growth has only compounded China’s supply issues. According to a 2006 study
from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD),
China's water use has increased more than fivefold since 1949, forcing
the government to take even more drastic measures.
In 2008, China unveiled the
Three Gorges Dam — a massive hydropower project that the country
heralded as a marvel of engineering. Today, it's the largest hydropower
structure in the world, though it has had disastrous ecological and
social effects, resulting in deadly landslides and the displacement of
an estimated 1.4 million people.
The government openly acknowledged
these pitfalls in 2011, but it remains intent on building the
South-North Water Transfer Project — an even grander undertaking that
the New York Times
described as "China's most ambitious attempt to subjugate nature." When
completed, the $62 billion initiative will divert water from China's
already drought-ravaged southern region to the northern Yellow and Hai
rivers.
"An emergency relief effort"
Ma describes the Water
Transfer Project as "an emergency relief effort," citing the dire
situation in China's northeast region, though he doesn't see it as a
viable long-term solution.
"They could run out of water
without this project," he said, "but even the current volume of
redirected water likely won't be enough to keep up with demand."
Instead, Ma and others say
China should focus on controlling demand and regulating pollution,
rather than re-allocating its water supply.
Xavier Leflaive, head of the
water team at the OECD's Environment Directorate, says China should
implement market-based reforms to encourage more responsible water
usage, while phasing out fertilizer subsidies to mitigate agricultural
runoff.
He acknowledges that China
isn't the only country facing these issues; global water demand is
expected to increase 55 percent over the next three decades, and rapidly
developing countries like India have faced similar crises.
But Beijing's unique economic and social developments add an extra
layer of urgency. "This global trend is exacerbated in China by the
speed and scale of urbanization and economic development, and by a lack
of strong monitoring, inspection and enforcement capabilities," Leflaive
said in an email to The Verge. "This lack is limiting the effectiveness of otherwise sound policies, laws and regulations."
China has implemented tougher regulations on water usage and pollutants — the so-called "three red lines" — though it remains to be seen whether they can be enforced across an expansive, and fast-growing economy.
"punish offenders with no mercy and enforce the law with an iron fist"
The good news is that the
Chinese government seems willing to take a harder stance on
environmental stewardship. In the past, Beijing has scoffed
at calls to control its greenhouse emissions, arguing that it shouldn't
be punished for its own economic prosperity. But Premier Li Keqiang has
adopted a more environmentally conscious tone in recent weeks, vowing
to be more transparent about his country's ecological issues.
"We must take the steps in advance," Li said last month, "rather than hurry to handle these issues when they have caused a disturbance in society."
The premier has also promised
to enforce current regulations on pollution, as he explained at his
debut press conference in March.
"This government will show even greater resolve and take more vigorous efforts to clean up such pollution," Li said. "We need to face the situation and punish offenders with no mercy and enforce the law with an iron fist."
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